At some point last week I was asked a question, a poignant question, but one that my answer was unsure of and was pure speculation. As much as the current climate causes unpredictability, trying to guess the behaviour of people has become even harder so as my inner monologue continued, the end of those thoughts ended with an upper inflection of uncertainty. I had no conviction, no basis for my reasons, just guesswork.
“What’s going to happen to the industry?”
As lockdown eases and we return to “normality”, it is evident we return to a NEW normal. New habits, new standards, new expectations and new challenges to solve. For the moment the pubs and restaurants are still closed and a 2 metre distance applies.
A moment in this crazy timeline that will be heralded as a “victory” will be the re opening of pubs. In Wales I think this has hit the DNA of the country hard. This is a culture of drinkers who socialise and it is ingrained in the building of fantastic communities where people care, are friendly and makes for a relaxed and comforting nature. I bloody loves the Welsh, I does. A pub not too far away was selling takeaway pints in order to try to make some money during this shit show and the square was packed. Groups of people all socially distanced, drinking and laughing and appreciating those little things in life. These moments are not enough to sustain a business though, with no extra help after the furlough and grants, the pubs need to get busy. Good pubs always have atmosphere, your shoulder to shoulder at the bar (maybe one of you does the cheeky side step and lean for added advantage, just don’t wave a note at the bar staff like a cock). When you do get from the bar maybe you find a table, if so you all hunch around or stand about in your own little tribe. That connection and closeness is a feeling of belonging and comfort, even if its with people just from your community you feel part of something. To socially distance in a pub is going to stripe that away, to limit the amount of people in the pub will reduce the atmosphere. We have all walked into a quiet pub and its unnerving and its not a place you want to spend an evening. Also think of it from the landlords point of view, unless he gets a reduction in rent his already tight margins become impossible. Pubs that are in tourist traps usually have high summer rents and low winter rents. This is done so they can over pay in the summer and reap some rest bite in the Winter. Imagine for a moment being a landlord at the moment with high rents, no custom and just to really rub salt in the wound the weather has been beautifully sunny. “you would have made a killing!”
Unfortunately, pubs are high rent and small profit unless freehold. We are about to see inflation due to quantative easing (money printing), this means people are going be tighter on money and beer is going to cost more, this is before extra taxation due to Brexit and the delay in making trade deals. The pubs that have been sensible should be ok, the ones who have kept money in the business and can provide weddings and functions for example should be able to ride this storm. Companies who have become ingrained in the British way of life will also be fine due to people becoming habitual. “Spoons” will do well due to the habits of people getting value in a place we all love to start a night. The company has also already changed to non EU spirits and beers in order to ease disruption from Brexit and even managed to lower the price of said spirits to the customer. The pubs who are fucked are the ones who have been scrapping by, those mainly community pubs who have a few in a night. The areas where 3 or 4 of the pubs are close together will become survival of the fittest. Supermarkets will keep beer cheap and drinking at home will become more attractive.
Imagine you had that little restaurant, the one you have dreamed about. A nice little 30 seater. Cosy, intimate, a place people could relax for the night. You booked it out Friday and Saturday, mid week its decent. You make a bit, not Hollywood money but enough for a good life, you live your dream and live comfortable. Now imagine only taking half the money. Your half full Friday and Saturday and mid week is OK. Think of the new stress, anxiety and effect on your life that would cause. This is the reality for restaurant owners if social distancing is applicable for restaurants. If you lose half of your covers you have two options. Lose half the money or try to turn the table twice as fast to make the same money. When you hastily turn tables you are rushing people, when people cant relax they don’t enjoy the experience.
I have worked in numerous kitchens and can comfortably say that big tables can save a night, in busy times of year they can be a hinderence but as a general they add much needed revenue to the business. How then Boris?, can you socially distance a big booking?. Big tables would not be allowed for the foreseeable which will mean your relying of 2 tops and 4 tops to bring in the money. That is harder in a time people are divided about going back out. The optimistic side says people will flock out as soon as they can, as a reaction. Some precedent would be the public descending on shops today, or the hours of queuing at Ikea. This would be a wonderful scenario but the other scenario paints a bleaker picture. One of nervous customers who see restaurants as a place of possible danger.
The larger chain restaurants are pretty fucked. Any expansion in a company will now make way for damage limitation, offers will become part of the norm and be the main draw to get customers in. Years ago the pizzeria started offers via a supermarket and although it increased footfall it slowly became their main source of income. Every table would pay with the offer and profits would be watered down accordingly. Due to the way restaurant groups work they generally keep expanding into high rents, such as prime locations or shopping centres. With a management structure that means head office make decisions from hundreds of miles away, the restaurant, the staff and what it does for a community are little more than numbers and figures to them. Big chain restaurants WILL shut branches and people will lose jobs.
Before this shit show of a pandemic the way people were eating was slowly changing. Research had shown that evening meals were in decline but lunch and brunch meals had increased via a similar margin. It seemed the public preferred something more casual in the daytime, this would lead to a more relaxed evening at home. The figures for evening takeaway deliveries had increased to support this. A new culture of box set binging with a takeaway has immersed.
Companies such as JustEat and Deliveroo have grown exponentially and have even become part of our vocabulary, our habits and our life. The growth of this culture is attributed to generation Z, the age group of 18-30, who don’t go mad on the weekend binge drinking, don’t do drugs and aren’t bothered about shagging. The BBC had once deemed them “generation sensible”. This generation are focused on grades, social media, being first time buyers, having good credit and everything we would probably tell our younger selves to focus on. This generation have been a massive consumer of fast food and a major reason all fast food chains have signed up to delivery services.
With money tighter and people wary of society, takeaway culture is going to become vital to companies in order to survive and grow out of this. The lockdown has changed habits, “home is safe and the outside world is dangerous”, has been the subconscious message for two months. The comfort of treating oneself have involved ordering in, now social media is full of restaurants and chefs offering delivery services. (myself included). It has kept companies relevant in peoples thinking and provided comfort making the best of a shit situation. For the companies who don’t embrace the takeaway market it is going to be very hard. This is a concept the rest of the world has embraced, in New York everyone from the cheapest pizzeria to the high end restaurants offer takeaway.
When money gets tight for restaurants, staff levels will drop, the cheaper ingredients get brought and irregular decisions get made, that is not ever going to endear customers back more than once. The restaurants that will survive will be the ones who focus on their values, the food, the customers and are prepared to adapt. I really hope most can do this, I imagine the soulless, weak ones will flounder. It sounds like a culinary “Lord of the Flies” where only the strongest survive. The upsetting thing is restaurants that go under will struggle to even get rid of equipment as its a dead market as the primary customers of start ups and new establishments wont be there so the financial cost of failure with be even worse.
At the beginning of this blog, I said that this is purely speculation, and it is, I am not an industry expert. How I see the industry over the next year may never come to fruition. I would love to be utterly wrong, and the industry thrives as people realise that life is short and how much they have missed going for food. For me personally, it’s a time to keep hustling, grinding daily and to give the best I have got whilst trying to raise my level to know more, do more and become successful. In a world where 90% of start ups fail, the odds where against me to start, add the pandemic and a possible recession and we are probably looking 95%. But I will leave you with this,
“If it was a 99% chance of failing, I would still believe I can be that 1!.”
happy eating and support your local restaurants anyway you can.
FOOD ANARCHY 