“That’s Time at the Bar”

Yesterday, the first minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford, has announced a new series of restrictions in order to quell the resurgence of the spread of covid.

Less than a month after the end of a firebreak that was brought in to reduce the ‘R’ number to something more manageable we had a new stricter announcement. The firebreak was apparently “could be called a success” according to Mr Drakeford, well Marky boy I question your definition of success when within weeks your bringing in new regulations that are a hammer blow to an already crippled hospitality system.

These new measures include, stopping PUBS SELLING ALCOHOL, SHUTTING TO DINING IN FROM 6PM, AND CLOSING A RANGE OF TOURIST ATTRACTIONS. Prohibiting the sale of alcohol in pubs makes no sense, I pose the same risk if I sit there with a pint of coke than if it’s a pint of Guinness . You don’t want people meeting up, I can appreciate that to a point when it’s people on the lash but people having a quasi moment of escaped reality between all the pre cautions they have now implemented into the dining experience is a step too far. Being able to meet up with a friend, having a date night, being able to go to celebrate a loved ones anniversary or birthday, these are extremely valuable for people’s mental health as it gives an anchor to a reality of a time when the world didn’t suck balls.

That’s just the one viewpoint of the customer, think what it is going to do to the business. The business owners mental health is in an abusive relationship of constantly changing rules, bending over backwards to ridiculously high standards to then be blamed and vindicated. The hospitality industry has taken massive measures to keep people safe including extra cleaning, table service, ppe equipment, extra staff, reduced customers. Then after the feeling that some semblance has returned, people who don’t understand the industry, who don’t consult the industry and have never worked in the industry deal a fatal blow.

“but they have received help” , that’s the uneducated persons general view. The original rates reduction, vat discount and grants were indeed a much needed help. When companies didn’t need to pay rents legally until they could be renegotiated . What that essentially means is they had a discount originally but that’s now added back on with extra. So costs are higher at the moment. Every round of grants is at best covering some bills, It is highly unlikely all bills are covered by a generic set of grants. All of those chains who are in premium locations are hemohragging money at the moment and will be running up debt with government backed loans.

Have you ever thought about government backed loans? These loans are 6 months interest free and are not required to be paid back for 6 years. These loans that were substantial are easy to get. In fact the government made them easier than ever to get in order to keep businesses a float and to keep the damage to the pound and economy to a minimum. It was damage limitation.  What NOBODY talks about though is what is to stop somebody taking out a £40,000 loan, spending/ moving it and then liquidating the business for £5,000. It’s immoral, it’s wrong but it’s a free £35,000 . Now if I can see that and I am a relative amateur to business, my question is HOW MUCH MONEY LOANED WILL DEFAULT?.

The Welsh government has set up a 340 million pound support fund. This is to see people through December. This is a band aid at best, anyone who has been in the business knows the sales cycle of the restaurant game. December is about making money to cover January and February. With the government at best covering the bills it keeps a pub/ restaurant open for December but what about the quietest months of the year that follow. Is the government going to fund them till Mother’s day in March,(the upward turning point of the year)? I sincerely hope so but am not optimistic. Those summer months were lost and although Eat out, Help out was a massive boost, the lack of consistent regulation has taken its toll. The summer months to an experienced operator are about covering October and November. December covers January and February and hopefully at some point you get ahead enough to take a dividend bonus.

Customers are confused, staff don’t know if they are coming or going and now you can’t even buy a pint. I’m sure Mr Drakeford can explain the difference in risk of me going for a Sunday lunch and ordering the beef and a pint compared to me going for Sunday lunch and ordering the beef and a coke!!! I can’t see how it makes any variance on the level of risk.

With Christmas parties and friends annual get togethers already gone, and when people can not meet in other people’s houses, interaction is already at a minimum in restaurants and pubs. When asked by the BBC to show what research has led to this announcement the Welsh government did not provide a source.

Yesterday in a popular supermarket it was chaos, too many people, too much grabbing and putting down, everyone stopping to talk to each other about trivial shit (usually moaning about something) , people not respecting distance. Why aren’t measures being brought back in to supermarkets if there is a spike in cases? People sitting down at a table from the same bubble with masks on everytime they move from the table seems a hell of a lot safer to me than the gauntlet of infection that is a supermarket.

This is now the sword of Damocles swaying precariously above the business. Independents are on borrowed time in the majority of cases as profits that where already thin are being asked to be stretched to cover expenses that occur no matter your sales. The government whether Welsh or British is trying to help the sector get through this unprecedented time but they lack understanding of the industry. As this continues, owners and staff will question the security of hospitality and leave for something more “safe and sensible”. Who can blame them? People have families to support so will give up what they love and take work in a “recession/ pandemic proof” job. Owners will look to cut loses rather than look to optimism.

With the amount of money that has been printed since March, the government has supported this unprecedented time. As the right wing has now effectively become socialist to pay the people, a gigantic bubble has been produced. At some point it pops and a recession hits, this is Rishi Sunaks “economic emergency” he was saying has just began. The only way to lessen this is with inflation which is ever unpopular with voters.  So going into 2021 the options for owners are ride a recession and all the mental and finacial anguish that comes with that or customers have less money due to inflation and spending cuts and your costs go up so margins of profit are even smaller .

I apologise for the negativity of this blog, I prefer optimism so let’s try to find something positive to finish.

If pubs and restaurants can weather this storm, if staff can see it through a bit longer then there does seem light at the end of the tunnel. Next spring when measures should be relaxed, the vaccine should have been rolled out and the warm weather kicks in, a new sense of optimism and positivity will appear. Like the bear who sleepily comes out of hibernation the first thing people will do is explore outside and eat. Here’s hoping this pent up society meet with friends, family and appreciate that part of life that we have been hidden from. Staycations are here to stay for the next few years and that means punters in the hotspots. It’s always darkest before the dawn and spring always follow winter, no matter how bad that winter is.

Support independents wherever you can.

Happy eating.